Meadowlark Economics:

ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION

Other economists say that we had better not wait: if we err, we should, as the saying goes, "err on the side of caution." Rushworth M. Kidder addresses this issue in his essay "Let's Not Wait for 'Proof' on Warning of Global Warming," when he argues that we should not evaluate clean-up costs based on certainties; instead, we should view them as costs or premiums paid on a global health-insurance policy:

We need to change our metaphor. We need to stop looking at environmental issues as though these were court cases. We need, instead, to think of ourselves as homeowners buying insurance. You don't insure against the absolutely predictable. You protect against the possible... You defend yourself against large and irreversible damages.

In fact, some progress has already been made within the developed countries. The United States has initiated a reforestation plan, and some electric utilities have committed company resources to planting trees. In addition, Sweden has taken the important first step of levying a C0₂ emissions tax.

Also, in the Montreal Protocol-a twenty-four-nation treaty signed in 1987-the representative countries pledged to reduce ozone depleting CFC emissions by 50 percent by the year 2000. Although the directive was strengthened in 1990, new evidence of ozone thinning, and even possible ozone "holes" over North America, accelerated the schedule of CFC production phase-out by 1995 or before. Indeed, many environmental groups see the Montreal Protocol as a model for future negotiations that will address even more complex environmental problems, such as atmospheric warming, on an international scale.

Economists are beginning to rethink developmental strategies for the Third World countries that are compatible both with planetary health and with the betterment of living standards for the world's poorest nations. Working out such short- and long-term policies will be the great challenge of the coming decade and the early part of the next century. Given the complexity of these issues, economists would be well-served not only to have a grounding in politics (the traditional science of political economy) but also to synthesize their discipline with ecology as well.

For government officials, this same approach is equally valuable. Considering the enormous implications of today's decisions for tomorrow's generation and the next-in both the developed and the developing worlds-our leaders might well heed the advice of Lao Tzu, written in the fourth century BC. Toward the end of his little book, The Way Of Life dedicated in part to helping the ruling class of his era, Lao Tzu writes:

Solve the small problem before it becomes big.
The most involved fact in the world
Could have been faced when it was simple
The biggest problem in the world
Could have been solved when it was small

When we consider human impact, world economics, global population, and the environment, such advice is as solid, wise, and true today as ever.

Meadowlark Economics: Perspectives on Ecology, Work and Learning, pp92-94
James Eggert
M E Sharpe, Ink,
Armonk NY 1992
ISBN 1-56324-163-3
 

Copyright 1997
The Center for Resource Solutions [CRS]
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415-561-2100. FAX 2105

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